CBAM Cost Calculator: 2026–2034 Certificate Obligation Forecast
Enter your sector, country of origin, and annual import volume to calculate your CBAM certificate obligation and cost from 2026 through 2034, using official EU benchmark emission factors from IR 2025/2621 and the live EU ETS price.
Your import details
Enter your sector, country, and annual import volume above to calculate your CBAM certificate obligation.
How the CBAM Cost Calculator Works
The calculator applies the CBAM factor schedule from Regulation (EU) 2023/956, as amended by the Omnibus regulation (EU) 2025/2083. The CBAM factor rises each year from 2.5% in 2026 to 100% in 2034, tracking the phase-out of EU free allocation under the EU Emissions Trading System.
Default values vs. actual emission data
When a non-EU supplier has not submitted verified actual emission data to the CBAM Operators Portal, EU importers must use the default emission values from IR 2025/2621 Annex I. These default values are set above the actual EU benchmark and include a punitive mark-up: 10% in 2026, 20% in 2027, and 30% from 2028 onward. Fertilizer default values carry only a 1% mark-up due to food security considerations.
Switching from default values to verified actual data is the single most effective way to reduce your CBAM certificate cost. A Turkish cement producer providing verified actual emissions of 0.88 tCO₂/t avoids paying on the 1.584 tCO₂/t default, reducing costs by roughly 80%.
The CBAM factor schedule (2026-2034)
| Year | CBAM factor | Free allocation remaining |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5% | 97.5% |
| 2027 | 5.0% | 95.0% |
| 2028 | 10.0% | 90.0% |
| 2029 | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| 2030 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 2031 | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| 2032 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 2033 | 87.5% | 12.5% |
| 2034 | 100% | 0% |
Certificate purchases and the quarterly holding requirement
CBAM certificate sales open February 1, 2027. From that date, importers must hold a minimum of 50% of their cumulative embedded emissions as certificates at the end of each calendar quarter. The full annual declaration and surrender is due September 30 each year, covering the prior calendar year's imports.
Importers may buy back up to 50% of the certificates purchased in any given year before October 31 of that year. Certificates that are not surrendered or bought back are cancelled on November 1 of the second year following the year of purchase.
The de minimis threshold
Importers whose total annual imports of CBAM goods across all sectors fall below 50 tonnes are exempt from CBAM obligations. This threshold applies to the total across all six CBAM sectors, not per product. If you import 30 tonnes of steel and 25 tonnes of cement, your combined 55 tonnes exceeds the threshold and all imports are in scope.