CBAM Certificate Price Tracker: Live EU ETS Price and Official Certificate Price

What is the EU ETS carbon price?

The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the world's largest carbon market. Under the cap-and-trade mechanism, the EU sets an annual cap on the total volume of greenhouse gas emissions from covered installations — power plants, factories, and airlines. Covered entities must hold one EU allowance (EUA) for each tonne of CO₂ equivalent they emit each year.

Allowances are allocated partly for free and partly auctioned on exchanges such as EEX (European Energy Exchange) and ICE. The ETS price — sometimes called the carbon price or EUA price — is determined by supply and demand at these auctions and on secondary markets. It fluctuates daily based on energy market conditions, policy changes, economic activity, and weather.

The EU ETS price has risen sharply since 2020, when the Market Stability Reserve began reducing the oversupply of allowances. From around €25/tCO₂ in early 2020, the price reached a historic high above €90/tCO₂ in early 2023 before settling in the €60–70 range. This trajectory directly determines how much CBAM will cost importers.

How does the EU ETS price determine the CBAM certificate price?

Under Regulation (EU) 2023/956, CBAM certificates are priced at the average EU ETS auction clearing price over a reference period. In the definitive phase starting 2026, the CBAM certificate price equals the weekly average of EU ETS auction prices for the preceding quarter. The European Commission calculates and publishes this price within the first week after each quarter closes.

For Q1 2026 (January–March 2026), the official certificate price will be published on April 7, 2026 — the first official CBAM certificate price in history. This number will determine the value at which importers must surrender certificates covering their Q1 2026 imports when the first annual declaration is due on September 30, 2027.

EU ETS price vs. official CBAM certificate price — what's the difference?

The EU ETS price is a live market price. It changes every day and can move by several euros within a single session. The official CBAM certificate price, by contrast, is a fixed quarterly average. It is published once per quarter by the European Commission and does not change during that quarter.

This distinction matters for importers. You cannot buy CBAM certificates at the live ETS spot price — certificates are purchased from national registries at the official quarterly average price. If the ETS price rises sharply in February, your Q1 average certificate price will still reflect the lower January prices that partially offset that increase.

From 2027 onward, the averaging period changes from quarterly to weekly. This means the official certificate price will be updated every week rather than every quarter, tracking the ETS price more closely.

How is the quarterly average calculated?

The European Commission calculates the CBAM certificate price as the arithmetic mean of the EEX European Union auction settlement prices for all auction sessions held in the relevant quarter. For Q1 2026, this means averaging approximately 39–40 auction prices (three to four auctions per week across January, February, and March 2026).

The calculation is straightforward: sum all auction clearing prices in the quarter, divide by the number of auctions. The result is rounded to two decimal places and published on the Commission's CBAM page. This tracker shows the estimated Q1 2026 average based on the EEX auction data already available, with the official figure replacing it on publication day.

Certificate prices from 2027 onward

From January 1, 2027, the CBAM certificate price switches from a quarterly to a weekly average. The Commission will publish a new price each Monday, calculated as the average of all EEX auction prices from the preceding week (Monday to Friday).

This more frequent update cycle gives importers a clearer picture of their real-time certificate cost exposure. However, it also means that importers who plan purchases in advance face greater price uncertainty — a certificate purchased in January may differ significantly from one purchased in March of the same year.

The first CBAM certificate sales open February 1, 2027. From that date, importers can purchase and hold certificates ahead of the September 30, 2027 annual declaration deadline. The quarterly holding requirement — that importers hold at least 50% of their cumulative annual embedded emissions as certificates at each quarter-end — applies from 2027 onward.

Frequently asked questions

When is the Q1 2026 CBAM certificate price published?

The Q1 2026 official CBAM certificate price is published by the European Commission on April 7, 2026 — the first Monday after Q1 ends. It will appear on the Commission's CBAM page and will be reflected on this tracker immediately after publication.

What is the 2026 CBAM factor?

In 2026, the CBAM factor is 2.5% — meaning importers only need certificate coverage for 2.5% of their goods' embedded emissions. This low initial rate reflects the phase-in period while EU free allocations are still largely in place. The rate rises each year, reaching 100% in 2034 when EU free allocations are fully phased out.

How do I calculate my 2026 CBAM cost?

The basic formula is: Volume (tonnes) × Emission factor (tCO₂/t) × CBAM factor (2.5%) × ETS price (€/tCO₂). Use the quick estimator above for a fast estimate, or the CBAM cost calculator for a full 2026–2034 forecast with quarterly holding schedule and sensitivity analysis.